September 26, 2026 - TEMPO Networks

By Darsh Khusial and Joe Persaud

News Americas, NY, NY, Fri. Sept. 25, 2206: Guyana President Irfaan Ali indicated on August 18 that the country’s oil share from the Stabroek Block has increased from 12.5% to 39.8%.

However, in its 2026 Half-Year Report, issued a few weeks later on August 28, 2026, by the Honourable Dr. Ashni K. Singh, M.P., Senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance, the Bank of Guyana (BoG) appears to imply that Guyana’s profit share will be less than 30%. That would amount to billions of US dollars less than the figure implied by President Ali.

When President Ali made his statement, he implied that the maximum cost recovery going forward would be 20.4%. However, in section 3.63 on page 21, the BOG states: “The Stabroek Block partners will continue to recover current costs, lower than 75 percent of gross revenue, and Government will receive more than 12.5 percent of gross revenue in profit oil. As additional projects are approved, and their development costs enter the cost bank, the profit-oil ratio will move again.”

This statement essentially means that the cost bank can rise to as much as 75% of gross revenue. Stated another way, Guyana’s profit share going forward could range from 12.5% to 39.8%.

When Exxon referred to US$55 billion in capital and operating costs being paid off by the end of 2Q2026, it was not clearly stated which projects were included. However, one could reasonably assume that Exxon was referring to the first seven oil projects. The eighth oil project has already been approved, while the ninth oil project is in the process of being approved. Thus, one can assume that the 39.8% profit share could be short-lived.

The Bank of Guyana’s own production and oil-price assumptions raise an important question about the implied profit share for the second half of 2026.

For the first half of 2026, the BoG reports that Guyana produced 163.3 million barrels from the first four oil projects at an average price of US$92.50 per barrel. At a 12.5% profit share, Guyana’s first-half profit oil would therefore be:163.3 million × US$92.50 × 12.5% = US$1.89 billion

The BOG projects an average oil price of US$86 per barrel for the full year. We can therefore work backwards to determine the oil price that the BoG must effectively be assuming for the second half of 2026.

Scenario 1: Fifth project starts October 1

Assume the existing four projects produce another 163.3 million barrels during the second half of the year, and the fifth project contributes another 22.5 million barrels after starting on October 1 at approximately 250,000 barrels per day.

Second-half production would therefore be:

163.3M + 22.5M = 185.8 million barrels

Full-year production would be:

163.3M + 185.8M = 349.1 million barrels

For 349.1 million barrels to average US$86 per barrel for the year, after the first 163.3 million barrels were sold at an average of US$92.50 per barrel, the implied average price for the second half must be approximately: US$80.29 per barrel

That gives second-half gross oil revenue of: 185.8M × US$80.29 = US$14.92 billion

If Guyana’s share during the second half is 39.8%, its second-half profit share would be: US$14.92B × 39.8% = US$5.94 billion

Adding the first-half US$1.89 billion gives: US$1.89B + US$5.94B = US$7.83 billion

Yet the BoG is projecting approximately US$5.97 billion in profit-oil revenue for the entire year.

Since approximately US$1.89 billion relates to the first half, the BoG projection leaves only: US$5.97B − US$1.89B = US$4.08 billion for the second half.

Against estimated second-half oil revenue of US$14.92 billion, that means the BoG projection effectively assumes a second-half profit share of: US$4.08B ÷ US$14.92B = 27.4%

That is substantially below the 39.8% figure being used for comparison.

Scenario 2: Fifth project does not start until December 1

Now take a much more conservative assumption. Suppose the fifth project contributes only 7.5 million barrels during December. Using the same steps as in Scenario 1 and the BoG’s projection, the implied second-half share becomes 29.95%. So, even if we use the BOG’s relatively low US$86 full-year oil-price assumption, its projected US$5.97 billion in profit oil appears to imply that Guyana receives only about 27.4% to 30% of second-half gross oil revenue, depending on when the fifth project starts.

If, in 2027, we produce 1.15 million barrels per day for the entire year at an oil price of US$100 per barrel, that would generate approximately US$42 billion in revenue for the year. If Guyana receives a 39.8% profit share, that would amount to approximately US$16.7 billion. However, if Guyana receives only 27.4%, the profit share would be approximately US$11.5 billion.

We are talking about a difference of US$5.2 billion – almost the amount of Guyana’s entire 2024 national budget. President Ali needs to clarify: when he stated that Guyana will receive 39.8% of the Stabroek Block oil revenues, did he mean that this level would apply for only a couple of months?

EDITOR’S NOTE: Darsh Khusial is an executive of the Oil and Gas Governance Network (OGGN) Other executive members include Kenrick Hunte and Joe Persaud.

RELATED: Where Did US$604 Million In Guyana Oil Revenues Go In First Half Of 2026?

By NAN Staff Writer

News Americas, NY, NY, Fri. Sept. 25, 2026: Members and supporters of the Guyana opposition We Invest in Nationhood (WIN) party’s New York chapter gathered outside the United Nations Thursday to protest the country’s President, Irfaan Ali, during his address to the UN General Assembly’s 81st session, demanding he apply to Guyana the same principles he invoked before world leaders.

ALI AT THE UN

Speaking from the UN podium, Ali told the Assembly that “there can be no enduring prosperity where inequality deepens” and called for a world “where law restrains power, cooperation overcomes division, and every human being can look to the future with hope.” He added that “development must not merely make our economies richer; it must make our societies better.”

“Development must not merely make our economies richer; it must make our societies better. We must not allow further slippage in our pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals. We must renew our commitment to them —not as an inventory of promises, but as a covenant with our peoples and a practical blueprint for ensuring that development reaches every citizen, protects generations yet unborn and creates lasting, inclusive prosperity,” he said. “One way to arrest this slippage is, as Guyana is doing, to mainstream the Goals into our national development strategies, public policies and budgets, so that they become embedded in the priorities we set and the resources we commit, rather than remaining aspirations. The SDGs must not only guide our ambitions; they must shape our choices and our national priorities. In Guyana, we have made significant advances including universal health care, free education, modern infrastructure, accelerated access to affordable housing, opportunities for full employment, acceleration of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, and digitising service delivery.”

Demonstrators, holding signs reading “Let the Courts Do Their Jobs, No to Victimization” and “More Democracy, No to Dictatorship,” argued those principles are not being upheld at home. The WIN New York Chapter laid out seven specific grievances in a statement accompanying the protest. They include: escalating political persecution of Opposition Leader Azruddin Mohamed, opposition MPs, staff, and their associates; entrenched poverty, citing an Inter-American Development Bank finding that 58% of Guyanese live in poverty despite the country’s oil-driven economic growth; erosion of democratic and human rights protections; threats to judicial independence; political interference in policing; corruption and lack of government accountability; and unresolved accountability for the MV Barima ferry tragedy, which killed dozens of Guyanese in July.

“We demand accountability, equal treatment, independent institutions, judicial independence, respect for human rights, an end to political victimisation, and justice for the families of the MV Barima,” the WIN statement said, calling for the vessel to be recovered, the full truth established, evidence preserved, and affected families compensated.

Some demonstrators carried signs making more pointed personal accusations against Ali and Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo over the ferry disaster and other incidents, reflecting the intensity of grievance among protesters, though those specific claims have not been independently verified.

The protest is the latest flashpoint in an increasingly public standoff between Guyana’s government and Mohamed, whose WIN party won 16 seats in last year’s elections and who is currently fighting a US extradition request that his legal team has characterized as politically motivated – an argument this demonstration was explicitly designed to reinforce on the world stage.

The group also protested outside a Diaspora meet-up with the President later in the evening outside a presidential meet-and-greet event on Jamaica Avenue in Queens Village, NY.

President Ali Claims Guyana’s Oil Share Is 39.8%, But BOG Data Suggests Less Than 30%