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Where Did US$604 Million In Guyana Oil Revenues Go In First Half Of 2026?
By Darsh Khusial & Kenrick Hunte
News Americas, NY, NY, Sat. Sept. 19, 2026: Guyana oil revenues are again coming into question. Over the past week, several commentators have said the spot price of Brent crude has been between US$120 and US$150 per barrel. This contrasts with Brent crude futures, which have been around US$105 per barrel. In its First Half Report for 2026, the Bank of Guyana (BoG) stated that the average price received for Guyana’s oil during the first six months of the year was US$92.50 per barrel (see Section 2.10). However, the BOG projects that the average price for the entire year will be only US$86 per barrel (see Section 2.11 on page 6).
That projection is difficult to reconcile with oil prices so far this year. Since the U.S.-led war against Iran began at the end of February, Brent crude averaged approximately US$98 per barrel from March through the end of August. Perhaps the BoG’s US$86 projection can be seen as a forecast that ultimately proved incorrect. After all, predicting future oil prices may fall outside its circle of competence.
However, the oil-price projection is not the most concerning figure in the BoG’s 2026 First Half Report. There are potentially more serious issues when one attempts to reconcile its figures with Guyana’s actual oil production.
Section 15.6 of the Stabroek Block Petroleum Agreement states: “The Contractor shall pay, at the Government’s election either in cash based on the value of the relevant Petroleum as calculated pursuant to Article 13 or in kind, a royalty of two percent (2%) of all Petroleum produced and sold … Cash payment shall be due quarterly, thirty (30) days following the end of each calendar quarter.”
Since the government has been receiving the royalty in cash, as reflected in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) reports, we examined the quarterly royalty payments reported this year. Under Section 15.6, royalty payments relating to the first half of 2026 should be reflected in the April and July NRF statements.
The royalties reported in those two statements total approximately US$218.7 million, or about US$219 million. Given that the royalty rate is 2% and the BoG reports an average oil price of US$92.50 per barrel, US$219 million in royalties would imply total oil production of approximately 118 million barrels:
(US$219 million ÷ 2%) ÷ US$92.50 = approximately 118 million barrels
However, when this figure is compared with the production data published by the Government at petroleum.gov.gy, total production for the first six months of 2026 is approximately 163 million barrels. A rough calculation using production of about 900,000 barrels per day for 180 days produces approximately the same result.
That leaves a difference of roughly 45 million barrels. Surely 45 million barrels cannot be explained by petroleum used for fuel or transportation in petroleum operations.
If Guyana should have received 14.5% of the value of those 45 million barrels—representing a 12.5% profit-oil share plus the 2% royalty—the potential difference is approximately: 45 million barrels × US$92.50 × 14.5% = US$604 million
This raises an important question: Did Guyana forgo approximately US$604 million in oil revenues during the first half of 2026, or is there another explanation for the apparent discrepancy? The BoG’s projection that oil will average US$86 per barrel for the entire year may ultimately prove as misguided as it presently appears, particularly when September Brent prices are averaging approximately US$110 per barrel. But that involves predicting the future.
The approximately US$604 million discrepancy is different. It relates to oil that was already produced during the first half of 2026. That is the figure that requires an explanation.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Darsh Khusial is an executive of the Oil and Gas Governance Network (OGGN) Other executive members include Kenrick Hunte, Joe Persaud and Mike Persaud.
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US Paid Guyana $7.7 million To Take In Third-Country Deportees
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Sat. Sept. 19, 2026: The U.S. State Department reportedly paid Guyana $7,740,215 to support the resettlement and reintegration of third-country nationals deported from the United States. That’s according to a U.S. official who confirmed this to the Kaieteur News, as Guyana President Irfaan Ali pushed back against mounting public criticism over the arrangement’s financial terms and secrecy.
The International Organization for Migration is administering the payout, earmarked for financial and technical support over a two-year period. Under IOM’s oversight, individuals receive counseling on their options to return to their countries of origin, along with temporary accommodation, food, clothing, and household items for those choosing to return. Ali said “neither Guyana nor IOM will facilitate forced removal.”
No member of the Guyanese government has publicly detailed the arrangement’s operational scope, administrative costs or local resource allocations. Instead, Ali’s administration has focused public statements on border sovereignty, labor needs and human rights vetting.
At a news conference Monday, Ali said Georgetown’s participation hinges on US financial backing. “It must be a joint effort,” he said, stressing Guyana should not be expected to shoulder the costs of receiving and integrating deportees. He also pushed back on what he called social media mischaracterizations, clarifying that the agreement is limited strictly to third-country nationals with expedited or final removal orders who have received medical clearance from the Department of Homeland Security. Explicitly barred are unaccompanied minors, Guyanese nationals, individuals with pending US asylum claims, and those with known violent criminal records.
“The Government of Guyana retains complete discretion to approve or deny individuals proposed for removal,” Ali said. According to US officials who spoke with Kaieteur News, Guyana selects candidates from a list, and no one is transferred without explicit approval from Georgetown; final flight manifests must be supplied before departure, transfers are accompanied by US Homeland Security personnel, and Guyana can refuse entry to anyone not previously approved.
“Not a dumping ground,” Ali says, against a starkly different tone from Rubio
In a separate interview with Al Jazeera, Ali rejected the suggestion that Guyana is serving as a dumping ground for Washington’s immigration backlog or compromising its human rights standing. “I don’t see this as a business. Of course, everything in life has an element of risk,” Ali said. “We do our own vetting to our own satisfaction… This is not a situation where the U.S. turns up with a plane and just throws people off on your shores.”
Those assurances stand in sharp contrast to earlier remarks by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said: “We are actively searching for other countries to take people from third-world countries… We are working with other countries to say we want to send you some of the most despicable human beings to your countries, would you do that as a favour to us. And the further away from America, the better so they can’t come back across the border. I’m not apologetic about it.”
The first cohort, and what comes next
The funding disclosure follows the September 4 arrival of Guyana’s first cohort of six deportees, four Cuban and two Afghan nationals. Foreign Secretary Robert Persaud confirmed all six underwent background checks confirming no criminal histories, and said accepting skilled, vetted migrants aligns with Guyana’s labor shortage, estimated at 70,000 to 80,000 workers amid the country’s oil-driven economic expansion. The US has made no further requests for additional transfers at this time, according to Persaud, and US Ambassador to Guyana Nicole Theriot expressed gratitude for Guyana’s assistance.
The framework operates under a strictly temporary one-year window and explicitly excludes permanent resettlement; admitted individuals will ultimately return to their country of origin or relocate to a third country, retaining the right to seek international protection through local civil society, the IOM and the UNHCR.
Guyana joins an expanding list of CARICOM nations receiving non-citizen deportees under similar US arrangements. Global rights groups including Amnesty International, Refugees International and Human Rights First have warned that third-country removals carry serious risks of unlawful repatriation. According to a Congressional Research Service document dated August 24, ICE estimates more than 21,000 individuals have been removed to third countries under the policy to date, despite ongoing legal challenges in US federal courts.
NewsAmericasNow will continue tracking Guyana’s third-country deportation arrangement. Reporting from Kaieteur News contributed to this story.
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