Guyana Thoughtfully Navigates Geopolitical Tides
By Ron Cheong
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Weds. Nov. 27, 2024: Former Australian Prime Dr. Kevin Rudd, in his address on “The Challenge for Small States in Navigating Turbulent Geopolitical Times,” said: “… this geopolitical contest for regional and global dominance is intensifying at a time when new grave global challenges are sweeping across the world with a sharpening intensity — led by an emerging global climate crisis, the ever-present risk of global pandemics, and the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence on all past assumptions concerning human agency, economic competitiveness, and national security writ large…”
Guyana’s Pragmatic Approach
Buffeted by the challenges of being caught in Superpower Geopolitical Rivalries, a brand new oil economy with staggering challenges, existential national security challenges and all the other pressures, Guyana’s leaders in recent years have reacted swiftly and adeptly; perhaps fore-armed with the benefit of a historical retrospective of at what the country has been through and just how long and hard the road back has been. More than most small states, Guyana’s very survival will depend less on dogma and idealism and more on the tough disciplined approach of thoughtful yet swift pragmatic action.
When Donald Trump became President-elect, Guyana’s leaders were quick to congratulate him, even while others held back. And they pointed to the role of US the Ambassador to Guyana Sarah-Ann Lynch and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s role in ensuring the transition of power after Guyana’s last election. They said they expected that type of relation to carry on into Trump 2.0.
They also praised Secretary of State pick Marco Rubio for supporting for a US $180 million IDB loan to Guyana Shore Base Project, a consortium which services the country’s growing oil industry. The Biden administration blocked the loan in 2022 while at the same time lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s fossil fuel industry.
They have also been cultivating friendships and allies in the region. And last week they lavishly hosted Prime Minister Modi of India who seems to have charmed Trump and has a good friendship with him.
Over the three-day visit Modi was treated to cultural delights and he even participated in singing Bhajans. Modi called Guyana President Dr. Irfaan Ali and two former Presidents Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo and Donald Ramotar brand ambassadors for Guyana. At the climax of the visit, Modi was conferred with Guyana’s highest civilian honour, The Order of Excellence, by President Dr. Irfaan Ali for Modi’s “visionary statesmanship, championing the rights of developing countries on the global stage, exceptional service to the global community and for his commitment to strengthening India-Guyana relations.”
It’s good to have friends with contacts, especially in Trump world were so much depends on the relationship.
Another plus of sorts is that Elon Musk, Trump’s main cheerleader, ever present buddy and word’s richest man has expressed an interest in providing Starlink internet services to Guyana. Although this is a two-edged sword in which Musk’s deep pockets could eventually establish a monopoly and deepen Guyana’s reliance on the US, the alternatives vis a vie Venezuela assuages apprehensions.
Whatever we may think of Trump, these are thoughtful initiatives by a small country whose very survival and that of its citizens could well depend on the goodwill of the United States.
Venezuela Challenge
Guyana needs the US and its gunboats in its corner, if only as a deterrent. Venezuela has laid claim to two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, challenging the 1899 Paris arbitral award which set the boundaries of the two countries. Both negotiating parties Venezuela and Britain at the time, accepted the award. Some 70 years later Venezuela started producing maps which showed about two-thirds of Guyana as Venezuelan territory. And in 2023 Venezuela said it would be issuing Venezuelan identity document to the people in Guyana’s Essequibo region.
There is a vast disparity in the sizes and military capabilities of the counties. Venezuela has a population of about 29 million down about 2 million from refugees fleeing the country and an army of 343,000. Guyana has a population of less than a million and about 4,000 active and reserve personnel.
So when it was revealed that the previous government negotiated a lopsided revenue agreement with Exxon far less beneficial than the agreement with next door neighbour Suriname, Vice-President Jagdeo declined to try to renegotiate the contract both from the point of view of the message it would send to potential investors and from the point of view that contracts should be honoured. It is possible that consideration was also given to leaving the contract as is afforded some more protections from Venezuela, who would think twice before intruding on Exxon’s licensed area.
US China Geopolitics
On top of this, Guyana faces a complex set of dynamics, where they are now forced to make a binary choice between the US and China. During decades of US neglect of Latin America and the Caribbean, China extended their hand and financing in the region building up goodwill and influence.
When President Biden took office he sought to mend alliances broken during the Trump years and bring the US back into the family of nations. He sought to re-establish coalitions and together with allies to put up a front against China’s growing influence.
US, Vice-President Kamala Harris started an initiative last year in part to counter the growing Chinese influence in the Caribbean. The initiative’s stated goals were to improve Regional Food and Energy Security and also to moderate climate change, Guyana is a lynch pin in all these initiatives, but it also forces a choice between the US and China. Recently the Guyana’s governing political party removed Marxism-Leninism and socialism from its constitution. In fact, the party has long taken a pro-private sector approach combined with progressive housing, education and health policies since the 1990’s when it returned to power; so in many ways the move was symbolic, and an affirmation of its status to onlookers that it had thrown its lot in with the US and UK as it’s major security and trading partners.
The Road Ahead and Behind
Guyana which is 85% covered by forest, has long been a leader in environmental conversation with its Low Carbon Development Strategy. Vice-President Jagdeo, who was President of Guyana at the time was named a Time Hero of the environment in 2008. And in 2009 Jagdeo inked a deal Norwegian Environment Minster Erik Solheim in which he pledged US$250 million to Guyana for preserving its forests. With an average annual deforestation rate of 0.053% since 2018 and its abundant arable land this all fit well with the Biden administration but would be less of a priority with a Trump administration.
Guyana has come a long way. Viewed as communist in the 1960’s it was swept aside by geopolitical forces that led to a downward spiral. Three decades ago, the country had become the 2nd poorest country in the Western Hemisphere behind Haiti before it began to make a remarkable comeback. Long before it became popular Guyana was leading the world with its environmental conservation. Before oil in 2015 it was the fastest growing economy in the Region with its National Development strategy and Its Low Carbon Development strategy as center pieces of their economy. Guyana is now the fastest growing economy in the world. GDP grew by 33% (US$20.6 billion) in 2023 and is expected to be in the 20% range in 2024.
The country is clearly making all efforts to continue to build a prosperous future for its citizens and not to be sidelined by geopolitical forces again.
