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News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Thurs. Oct. 18, 2023: Despite reported revenue from oil royalties of $439 million in the second quarter, which increased the nation’s oil fund balance to $1.72 billion at the end of June, Guyana’s government has secured an additional loan of US$90 million from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), adding to Guyana’s debt of nearly US$1 billion.

The loan, approved by the IDB’s Board of Executive Directors, is reportedly specifically designed to expand access to safe and improved learning environments and enhance educational services, with a particular focus on supporting vulnerable students in Guyana. The IDB has described this loan as the first individual operation of a conditional credit line for investment projects (CCLIP), with a total value of US$150 million.

The additional debt comes as Guyana’s Ministry of Finance last month announced the third and fourth drawdowns from the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) for the year 2023. As per the official press release from the Ministry of Finance, a total of US$200 million had been transferred from the NRF to the Consolidated Fund in 2023, channelling resources to further national development objectives.

In August and September, the government drew US$100 million each, totaling GY$41.7 billion, which adds to the US$400 million withdrawals, or GY$83.4 billion, conducted earlier this year. Cumulatively, the total drawdowns for this year have reached US$600 million, which translates to a whopping GY$125.1 billion. The progression of these funds into the Consolidated Fund is in accordance with approvals made during the Budget 2023 process. The Parliament approved a total transfer of US$1.002 billion for the fiscal year 2023. US$402 million remains to be transferred.

Yet, as of December 31, 2022, Guyana owed the IDB US$787 million. With the recent US$205 million in loans, the total indebtedness to the IDB stands at US$992 million. In 2022 alone, Guyana borrowed US$335 million from the IDB.

Additionally, the Guyana government has taken on two development loan agreements worth $150 million with Saudi Arabia and a a $350 million loan with Qatar, all just this year.

Meanwhile, subject to approvals from authorities in Guyana, the final investment decision (FID) for ExxonMobil’s massive Whiptail development – its sixth in the Stabroek Block – is expected by Q1 2024.

So says the president of the company’s Guyana operations, Alistair Routledge, when asked by reporters on October 17.

“We’re anticipating somewhere around the first quarter or maybe the end of [the] first quarter of next year… but as I say, subject to going through the appropriate regulatory process,” he relayed.

Fitch Solutions forecast Guyana’s fiscal deficit will widen from 2.2% of GDP in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 given the government’s planned 41.4% increase in headline expenditure over the year. While this suggests a slight deterioration in the market’s fiscal trajectory, Fitch notes that the projected deficit remains comfortably below both the 5-year and 10-year historical average deficits of 5.0% and 4.3%, respectively.
The successful offshore oil field explorations and developments in Guyana in recent years have prompted the government to increase headline expenditure by double-digit growth rates since 2019, and 2023 will be no exception to this trend.

Nonetheless, Oil revenues will record large gains in the medium term as production continues to rise amid stabilizing prices, suggesting that Guyana will hit its first surplus in Fitch’s records by 2024. Overall, Fitch sees limited risks to Guyana’s medium-term fiscal trajectory due to persistent surpluses and a low debt-to-GDP ratio (24.6% in 2022 and averaging 25.6% between 2023 and 2027).

Guyana became an oil producing nation in 2019 and, with a population of roughly 800,000, is poised to dramatically increase its per capita wealth. While GDP per capita is skyrocketing thanks to oil production and 2022 GDP growth of 62 percent, but many still live under the poverty line. Guyana’s economy is, however, projected to grow by 37 percent in 2023 alongside a 6.6 percent inflation rate, making it one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

Guyana’s offshore oil development is poised to deliver over 500,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) by the end of 2023 with expectations that the country will produce 1.2 million bpd by 2027.

By Lilia Burunciuc And Marla Dukharan

News Americas, WASHINGTON, D.C.,Thurs. Oct. 18, 2023: In the Caribbean, understanding poverty and exactly who is affected and how, in order to inform corrective policy measures, is inhibited by the absence of data. Many Caribbean countries simply do not collect the data to measure and monitor poverty and inequality.

A World Bank study carried out in 2015 showed that nine Caribbean countries were data deprived, meaning they had one or less poverty estimates available within a ten-year period. The recommended frequency is 3-5 years (see chart showing the latest poverty data available by country).

This situation has not changed much since 2015. In 6 out of 18 countries in the Caribbean, national poverty estimates are available only for the 2000s. With the exception of Jamaica, which has a long history of monitoring poverty on an annual basis, and the Dominican Republic, the most recent poverty estimates are between 5 and 7 years old. In several countries, socio-economic information such as unemployment rates and demographic characteristics, is also not collected regularly. 

Unless we have up-to-date poverty data, we are unable to measure progress toward poverty reduction and may in fact be heading toward higher levels of poverty and inequality. Without the data, we are also unable to develop effective policies and interventions that address poverty, and social welfare spending could end up missing the mark completely. 

Caribbean people suffered severe socio-economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and their households were hit by yet another shock when living costs increased sharply in 2022. Evidence from phone- and online-based surveys conducted by development partners in recent years suggests that these shocks hit the poor and vulnerable the most, leading to rising inequality which is very visible now and a direct cause of poverty as the two reinforce each other in a vicious cycle.

The CARICOM Food Security & Livelihoods Impact Survey showed that, when faced with rising food prices in 2022, low-income households in the Caribbean were much more likely to reduce essential expenditure in health and education or sell productive assets to meet food needs than those better-off. Such coping behaviors reinforce inequality. On the other hand, higher levels of inequality can perpetuate poverty if power is concentrated in the hands of a few and limits access to opportunities or basic needs for those who need it the most. We need the data, and we need deliberate policy action to break this cycle so many are stuck in. 

More frequent household data can also be used to improve our resilience to climate change and natural hazards, for instance, by combining household data with climate and hazard data for vulnerability assessments that can inform targeted policies.

In the context of higher debt levels, the absence of recent poverty data means poverty may be less of a policy priority, but when poverty policies are implemented without sound data and evidence, they are less likely to be successful, resulting in wasted resources. The Caribbean simply can’t afford to continue along this path – Caribbean people deserve better.

The Capacity Gap 

Statistical capacity in the Caribbean is lower than in other world regions globally, as measured by the Statistical Performance Indicator. Many Caribbean countries struggle with weak statistical capacity and low data usage, which reinforce each other.  

Limited capacity means that the quality of the data can be poor and outdated. In addition, countries sometimes opt not to disclose poverty data based on political sensitivities, which hampers policymaking to improve the lives of the most vulnerable.

What Can Be Done? 

Some Caribbean countries have made efforts to address aspects of the data gap. For example, initiatives like the World Bank funded OECS Data for Decision Making Project, the Caribbean Development Bank’s Enhanced Country Poverty Assessment Project or Statistics Canada’s Project for the Regional Advancement of Statistics in the Caribbean have been implemented with the support of development partners. However, if we are to end poverty by 2030, the following needs to be considered: 

1. Commit to regular and comprehensive data collection on poverty and key socio-economic indicators. This includes conducting household surveys, censuses, and surveys to gather information on income, living conditions, employment, education, and healthcare access.  Governments must budget appropriately to conduct these surveys, and the development community can support these efforts by providing additional funding, capacity building and analytical support. 

2.  Invest in the capacity of national statistical offices and policy analysis units. This includes adequate staffing of statistical offices and providing training and resources to staff responsible for data collection, analysis, and reporting.  

3. Promote data transparency and accessibility. This includes making key indicators of surveys and poverty estimates available online and through public events, strengthening the legal framework for microdata dissemination and investing in microdata repositories for safe storage and dissemination.  

Poverty projections conducted for the Caribbean by the World Bank and insights from phone and online surveys conducted during the pandemic suggest that the Caribbean may not be making material progress with poverty reduction.

Although poverty is expected to be on a declining path since its spike in 2020, in most countries it is believed to still be above pre-pandemic levels. There is much work to do to help the poor and vulnerable recover from the pandemic and ensure that there will be no long-term impacts on the welfare of future generations who suffered from severe disruptions in education and health services during the pandemic. It is now imperative that leaders, in collaboration with international organizations and civil society, seize this opportunity to collect and transform data into meaningful action, leaving no one behind. 

At an individual level, we all need to advocate for governments to conduct and share assessments of poverty and the corresponding outcomes. By advocating for greater openness and transparency, we can contribute to the reduction of poverty and improved Caribbean lives and livelihoods.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Lilia Burunciuc is the World Bank Director for Caribbean countries. Ms. Burunciuc, a Moldovan national, is responsible for maintaining the partnership with the countries to address their development challenges.  Marla Dukharan is a Caribbean economist and a point of reference for monitoring regional developments and country-level economic performance, and is known for leading discussions and publishing reports on the Caribbean implications of global geopolitical developments. She is a highly sought-after speaker for key industry, multilateral, and academic conferences on a regional and international scale, and she regularly advises investors and private sector Boards of Directors in the Caribbean. The article was written to mark The International Day for the Eradication of Poverty – celebrated each year on October 17 throughout the world.