News Americas, WASHINGTON, D.C., Mon. Oct. 30, 2023: The Caribbean and Latin America is poised to achieve a 2.3 percent growth rate in both 2023 and 2024, even as notable challenges to economic prosperity persist.

That’s the word from the Atlas Network Initiatives in Latin America, based in the United States, and the Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Económica y Social (CERES) in Uruguay. The two organization recently jointly unveiled their latest report, titled the “Latin America Macro Vista Regional Report.”

This comprehensive report delves into the economic prospects for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the current year and the next. Here are the main takeaways:

In many aspects, LAC economies continue to trail behind their global counterparts, with the global economy forecasted to expand by three percent this year, including a robust four percent growth for emerging economies. The international context exhibits signs of intricate resilience, despite enduring issues such as high inflation and interest rates, among other unfavorable factors. For context, global economies, on average, saw growth rates of 3.8 percent over the past decade, surpassing the current economic predictions for the years to come.

The increasingly complex global landscape calls for policy adaptations by governments in Latin America and the Caribbean to address the issues of sluggish growth and development. Fortunately, history has revealed that during times of crisis and widespread uncertainty, opportunities for transformation and rejuvenation often emerge. The LAC region holds substantial potential to extend its influence in global trade by venturing into new markets beyond its traditional partners. Encouraging prospects are presented by countries like India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and others, provided the region can tap into essential export opportunities while facilitating advantageous imports and investments, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship. Given the abundance of natural resources and agricultural products, LAC economies stand uniquely positioned to reap the rewards of increased global trade.

Furthermore, the report underscores the growing prevalence of pro-market ideologies across the LAC region. Despite Argentina grappling with over-indebtedness, persistent macroeconomic imbalances, and distortionary taxation within a relatively closed economy in recent years, there is room for optimism. The outcomes of Argentina’s August presidential primaries indicate a positive shift. During the presidential election cycle in Argentina, policy proposals inspired by the Austrian School of Economics have gained prominence in public discourse, favoring economic liberalism, particularly at a time when it is needed most.

Dr. Roberto Salinas-León, Executive Director of Atlas Network’s Initiatives in Latin America, emphasized, “In Latin America and the Caribbean, the path forward, in light of today’s adversity and uncertainty, is to embrace reforms promoting free-market principles and to build upon the successes of economic liberalization. While the projection suggests economic growth for LAC in 2023 and 2024, the region has not yet fully realized its potential. This underscores the importance of policymakers in the region championing open markets, with a particular focus on global trade. Global trade should be a central policy concern this year and beyond, and we encourage all LAC governments to leverage their vast export potential.”

By Lilia Burunciuc And Marla Dukharan

News Americas, WASHINGTON, D.C.,Thurs. Oct. 18, 2023: In the Caribbean, understanding poverty and exactly who is affected and how, in order to inform corrective policy measures, is inhibited by the absence of data. Many Caribbean countries simply do not collect the data to measure and monitor poverty and inequality.

A World Bank study carried out in 2015 showed that nine Caribbean countries were data deprived, meaning they had one or less poverty estimates available within a ten-year period. The recommended frequency is 3-5 years (see chart showing the latest poverty data available by country).

This situation has not changed much since 2015. In 6 out of 18 countries in the Caribbean, national poverty estimates are available only for the 2000s. With the exception of Jamaica, which has a long history of monitoring poverty on an annual basis, and the Dominican Republic, the most recent poverty estimates are between 5 and 7 years old. In several countries, socio-economic information such as unemployment rates and demographic characteristics, is also not collected regularly. 

Unless we have up-to-date poverty data, we are unable to measure progress toward poverty reduction and may in fact be heading toward higher levels of poverty and inequality. Without the data, we are also unable to develop effective policies and interventions that address poverty, and social welfare spending could end up missing the mark completely. 

Caribbean people suffered severe socio-economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and their households were hit by yet another shock when living costs increased sharply in 2022. Evidence from phone- and online-based surveys conducted by development partners in recent years suggests that these shocks hit the poor and vulnerable the most, leading to rising inequality which is very visible now and a direct cause of poverty as the two reinforce each other in a vicious cycle.

The CARICOM Food Security & Livelihoods Impact Survey showed that, when faced with rising food prices in 2022, low-income households in the Caribbean were much more likely to reduce essential expenditure in health and education or sell productive assets to meet food needs than those better-off. Such coping behaviors reinforce inequality. On the other hand, higher levels of inequality can perpetuate poverty if power is concentrated in the hands of a few and limits access to opportunities or basic needs for those who need it the most. We need the data, and we need deliberate policy action to break this cycle so many are stuck in. 

More frequent household data can also be used to improve our resilience to climate change and natural hazards, for instance, by combining household data with climate and hazard data for vulnerability assessments that can inform targeted policies.

In the context of higher debt levels, the absence of recent poverty data means poverty may be less of a policy priority, but when poverty policies are implemented without sound data and evidence, they are less likely to be successful, resulting in wasted resources. The Caribbean simply can’t afford to continue along this path – Caribbean people deserve better.

The Capacity Gap 

Statistical capacity in the Caribbean is lower than in other world regions globally, as measured by the Statistical Performance Indicator. Many Caribbean countries struggle with weak statistical capacity and low data usage, which reinforce each other.  

Limited capacity means that the quality of the data can be poor and outdated. In addition, countries sometimes opt not to disclose poverty data based on political sensitivities, which hampers policymaking to improve the lives of the most vulnerable.

What Can Be Done? 

Some Caribbean countries have made efforts to address aspects of the data gap. For example, initiatives like the World Bank funded OECS Data for Decision Making Project, the Caribbean Development Bank’s Enhanced Country Poverty Assessment Project or Statistics Canada’s Project for the Regional Advancement of Statistics in the Caribbean have been implemented with the support of development partners. However, if we are to end poverty by 2030, the following needs to be considered: 

1. Commit to regular and comprehensive data collection on poverty and key socio-economic indicators. This includes conducting household surveys, censuses, and surveys to gather information on income, living conditions, employment, education, and healthcare access.  Governments must budget appropriately to conduct these surveys, and the development community can support these efforts by providing additional funding, capacity building and analytical support. 

2.  Invest in the capacity of national statistical offices and policy analysis units. This includes adequate staffing of statistical offices and providing training and resources to staff responsible for data collection, analysis, and reporting.  

3. Promote data transparency and accessibility. This includes making key indicators of surveys and poverty estimates available online and through public events, strengthening the legal framework for microdata dissemination and investing in microdata repositories for safe storage and dissemination.  

Poverty projections conducted for the Caribbean by the World Bank and insights from phone and online surveys conducted during the pandemic suggest that the Caribbean may not be making material progress with poverty reduction.

Although poverty is expected to be on a declining path since its spike in 2020, in most countries it is believed to still be above pre-pandemic levels. There is much work to do to help the poor and vulnerable recover from the pandemic and ensure that there will be no long-term impacts on the welfare of future generations who suffered from severe disruptions in education and health services during the pandemic. It is now imperative that leaders, in collaboration with international organizations and civil society, seize this opportunity to collect and transform data into meaningful action, leaving no one behind. 

At an individual level, we all need to advocate for governments to conduct and share assessments of poverty and the corresponding outcomes. By advocating for greater openness and transparency, we can contribute to the reduction of poverty and improved Caribbean lives and livelihoods.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Lilia Burunciuc is the World Bank Director for Caribbean countries. Ms. Burunciuc, a Moldovan national, is responsible for maintaining the partnership with the countries to address their development challenges.  Marla Dukharan is a Caribbean economist and a point of reference for monitoring regional developments and country-level economic performance, and is known for leading discussions and publishing reports on the Caribbean implications of global geopolitical developments. She is a highly sought-after speaker for key industry, multilateral, and academic conferences on a regional and international scale, and she regularly advises investors and private sector Boards of Directors in the Caribbean. The article was written to mark The International Day for the Eradication of Poverty – celebrated each year on October 17 throughout the world.

By Dr. Lorraine Sobers

News Americas, PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad, Fri. Oct. 6, 2023: Beginning in 2015, Guyana’s oil finds have been fast and fabulous: 11 billion barrels and counting; production has been sizeable and surging: 400.000 barrels per day and growing; incremental GDP has been swift and sensational, 63.2% increase in the first half of 2023. However, Industrial low carbon development, excluding renewable energy projects, have progressed more slowly with long pauses of silence. Last year Hess Corporation purchased carbon credits from the Guyana government to offset carbon dioxide (CO2 )emissions. By selling carbon credits linked to its standing forest Guyana is generating revenue for low carbon development using CO2 ‘out of thin air’. In this article I will highlight opportunities for industrial low carbon development from gas brought to shore. With natural gas processing and its use as fuel or feedstock, CO2 emissions are inevitable. These emissions are also a hidden resource.

Parallels in nature

‘Out of thin air’ means ‘from non-existent, unknown or hidden resources’ — an apt description for heavy industry built around the use of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas and waste effluent from power generation and the petrochemical industries. The phrase can also be used to literally describe the wealth generated from Guyana’s luxuriant, tropical forest providing a substantial carbon sink through the process of photosynthesis. Each leaf acts a tiny industrial plant using solar energy to combine and convert CO2 from the atmosphere, water, and minerals into and energy-dense organic compounds. Carbon-based industrial development is in some ways a biomimicry of trees — industrial plants acting as large man-made ‘leaves’ to combine CO2 with other raw materials to create inorganic material through processing.

For Guyana, CO2 usage and storage will not save the planet by themselves. However, CO2 storage can generate revenue and offset emissions while CO2 usage can bolster diversification, specifically for the petrochemical and agricultural sectors.

CO2 Storage through Forest Conservation

Guyana has countless leafy trees spread across 18 million hectares of forest, removing 20 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Last year Hess Corporation entered into an agreement with Guyana to purchase USD750 million in carbon credits from Guyana over a 10-year period. Each carbon credit offsets one metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted by Hess Corporation. Companies like Hess Corporation now operate within Guyana as oil and gas producers at the most notable time in the country’s history.

CO2 Storage through Geologic Storage

Recently, I endorsed legislation passed allowing for geologic storage of CO2 in Guyana through Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). I commend Guyanese law makers for taking the first bold step to commercialize this hidden resource. Last year Britain’s North Sea Transition Authority announced the success of its bid round for offshore geologic carbon storage attracting twenty six (26) bids from nineteen (19) companies for the thirteen (13) areas offered. This year, twenty-one (21) new licenses were granted to thirteen (13) companies.

CO2 Capture Utilization and Storage Opportunities

Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS), of which CCS is a subset, presents another opportunity for Guyana to mitigate climate change, remain a carbon sink. generate revenue and advance its manufacturing sector out of thin air. Guyana’s direct emissions, classified as Scope 1 emissions, will remain relatively small. However, CCUS can be used to offset the anticipated increase Guyana’s carbon footprint even as the energy sector continues to grow and expand into oil and gas processing.

CCUS also provides several opportunities in the manufacturing sector. CO2 can be used to produce fuels, chemicals and building materials. Several of these processes are mature, commercial technologies used around the world. Combined with hydrogen, CO2 can be converted to fuels and chemicals including methane, methanol, ethanol. olefins, gasoline and aviation fuels. In cases where a lot of electricity is needed, applying CCS or using renewable energy can lower the carbon intensity of the process. Chemical intermediates from CO2 such as propylene and ethylene are the starting point for a wide range of complex chemicals, plastics, polymers and fibers.

CO2 Utilization and the Agriculture Sector

Although the energy sector is receiving a lot of attention, it is not labour intensive. It is also risky to depend on a single economic activity based primarily on the high and lows of oil prices especially as peak oil looms in just a couple decades. However, there is opportunity to augment and strengthen the agriculture sector from oil and gas revenue and the by-products of gas usage, namely CO2. Guyana can develop its agriculture sector into large-scale, efficient, sustainable, operations alongside energy sector developments.

The fertilizer industry has a high demand with high prices maintained over the last decade years. As early as the 1950s natural gas and CO2 have been used to manufacture urea in Trinidad. Urea and fertilizer manufacture are perfectly suited for Guyana’s being the ‘breadbasket of the Caribbean and present a real opportunity around the proposed industrial hub at the Wales Estate where the gas to power project is emerging. Lower electricity prices, combined with ready availability of fuels and feedstocks, is a promising recipe for economic growth.

Sustained increases in food prices have been troubling Caribbean households for some time now. CARICOM nations have struggled to maintain self-sufficient food production or meet the local, regional and international demand for certain raw produce such as bananas, cocoa, sugar, coconut, avocadoes, mangoes and exotic fruits and, processed agricultural goods. Guyana has the opportunity to use renewable energy, land space and locally CO2-produced fertilizer to bolster food security and self-sufficiency for itself and the region.

Crop Yield Boosting with CO2

Higher concentrations of CO2, known as CO2 dosing, in a closed environment such as a climate-controlled, greenhouse can boost crop yield of cucumbers, tomatoes, eggplant (also known as bhaigan locally) and lettuce. The concentration of CO2 can be adjusted to create an optimal environment for growth. This technology has been used extensively in the Netherlands with anthropogenic and atmospheric CO2.

Last week I expounded on the need for better scores in mathematics at the Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate (CSEC) exams. The good news is that Guyanese students have demonstrated outstanding aptitude for agriculture by their noteworthy performance in exams; pass rates are consistently over 90%. Guyanese youth are interested in and are well prepared for viable opportunities in the agriculture sector.

History has shown that there are challenges to attracting and retaining manpower in the agriculture sector when there is such close contact to lucrative energy sector jobs. However, through innovative processes and technologies, industrial agriculture can be as exciting and financially rewarding as the energy sector. Policies and petrodollars can boost the scale of food production and food processing with satisfactory profit margins.

CO2 is a waste product that can become a useful resource within the country’s low carbon development strategy. Guyana can remain a net carbon sink while leveraging on this hidden resource literally taken out of thin air.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Dr. Lorraine Sobers is a Petroleum Engineering lecturer at the University of the West Indies. She has 20 years’ experience in the energy sector specialising in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). She has a keen interest in using her technical expertise for the development of low carbon development policies. Dr. Sobers is a Fellow of the Caribbean Policy Consortium and a member of the Global Americans Global High-Level Working Group on Climate Change in the Caribbean.