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Top Caribbean Countries Forecast For Economic Growth In 2025

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News Americas, New York, NY, December 18, 2024: The Caribbean region is poised for slow but steady economic growth in 2025, with Guyana leading the pack at a projected 13.6% GDP growth, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, (ECLAC). The projections are part of ECLAC’s Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, released today.

Excluding Guyana, the Caribbean is expected to grow by 2.6%, reflecting a modest expansion amid ongoing challenges such as slow job creation, high informality, and gender disparities in labor markets. With Guyana, growth is forecast to be 8.7 percent.

ECLAC’s Executive Secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, emphasized the importance of strengthening resilience, fostering productive investments, and creating quality employment to break the cycle of low growth capacity.

Caribbean GDP Growth Forecast 2025

Below is a breakdown of Caribbean countries by their projected GDP growth for 2025, ranked from highest to lowest:

CountryGDP Growth (%)Guyana13.6Antigua and Barbuda5.8Saint Vincent and the Grenadines4.7Dominica4.2Belize4.1Grenada3.7Saint Kitts and Nevis3.2Barbados3.0Saint Lucia3.0Suriname3.0Trinidad and Tobago2.5Jamaica2.2Bahamas1.7

ECLAC highlights the need for economies to effectively mobilize financial resources, adopt policies that enhance productivity, and stimulate long-term investments in productive sectors to achieve sustained growth.

As Caribbean nations focus on boosting resilience and fostering inclusive development, these growth rates reflect a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025.

The Caribbean Develops World-Changing Sargassum Technology

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News Americas, New York, NY, December 10, 2024: The Caribbean is demonstrating its ingenuity on the global stage by creating a groundbreaking technology that has the potential to benefit the world. Barbados-based start-up Rum and Sargassum Inc., in partnership with The University of the West Indies, (UWI) Cave Hill Campus, has unveiled the world’s first vehicle powered by bio-Compressed Natural Gas, (CNG), derived from sargassum and rum distillery wastewater.

This innovative fuel turns a regional challenge – sargassum seaweed inundating Caribbean coastlines – into a valuable resource, showcasing how small island nations can lead in solving global problems. As part of its broader goal to achieve 100% renewable energy and carbon neutrality by 2030, Barbados is setting an example in environmental sustainability and renewable energy development.

The bio-CNG project is led by Dr. Legena Henry and her team at UWI Cave Hill’s Renewable Energy Development Laboratory. Speaking at the vehicle’s launch, Dr. Henry described the innovation as a product of determination and creative problem-solving. “This is not just for the Caribbean. It’s a technology that can be exported to other parts of the world, including regions like West Africa, South America, and Florida, which also face sargassum issues,” she said.

The bio-CNG vehicle, emblazoned with the slogan “Runs on Sargassum,” is more than a symbol of progress; it is a step toward a sustainable future. The initiative also integrates agriculture and energy through a biogas station at Guinea Estate in Barbados, where “the digestate feeds the land, and the gas fuels cars,” according to Dr. Henry.

Professor Clive Landis, Principal and Pro-Vice Chancellor of UWI Cave Hill, emphasized the project’s far-reaching impact. “This achievement demonstrates how UWI translates research excellence into societal value. It’s ready for scale-up and global investment, marking a milestone in technology transfer,” he said.

Barbados’ Minister of Energy and Business, Senator Lisa Cummins, celebrated the innovation as a pivotal moment in the nation’s renewable energy journey. “This is not just a local solution; it has the potential to redefine how the world views sargassum,” she stated, urging the Caribbean to embrace its role as a leader in sustainable technology.

The initiative, supported by partners like the Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (CCREEE) and the Inter-American Development Bank, underscores the region’s capacity to innovate and lead. As Dr. Henry aptly concluded, “These small islands have created technology that can benefit the rest of the world. This is a big win for the Caribbean and for global sustainability.”

Guyana And Suriname Will Soon Be Linked By A Bridge

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News Americas, New York, NY, December 9, 2024: Guyana and Suriname will soon be linked by a bridge.

The two South American, CARICOM nations have taken a major step toward strengthening regional connectivity by selecting China Road and Bridge Corporation, (CRBC) to construct a 1.1-kilometer bridge across the Corentyne River. This bridge will link the two neighboring countries, further enhancing trade and cooperation.

Guyana’s Minister of Public Works, Juan Edghill, confirmed the selection on Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024, stating, “China Road and Bridge has been the preferred evaluated bidder agreed on by both countries.” He added that construction would commence once financing for the US$236 million project is finalized.

The planned bridge will span from Moleson Creek in Guyana to Long Island and then connect to South Drain in Suriname. Both nations, which maintain close ties with China, have approached the East Asian country to fund the project, underscoring its significance for bilateral and regional development.

CRBC was chosen over The Netherlands-based Ballast Nedam for the project. Suriname’s Technical Assistant for Capital Infrastructure Projects highlighted that the bridge is designed for durability, with a projected lifespan of 100 years and minimal maintenance requirements. It will also feature accommodations for vessels of up to 47,000 deadweight tonnes, with a horizontal clearance of 100 meters and a vertical clearance of 43 meters.

While Guyana and Suriname are eager to proceed, sources indicate that Suriname must carefully manage borrowing to meet global economic recovery benchmarks. Nonetheless, the bridge represents a landmark initiative to bolster economic growth and connectivity between the two countries.

This project reflects the strong partnership between Guyana and Suriname and their shared commitment to infrastructure development that benefits the region as a whole.

Bahamas Secures $120M For Ocean Conservation

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News Americas, New York, NY, December 9, 2024: The Bahamas has unlocked over $120 million for the conservation and sustainable management of its oceans and mangroves through an innovative debt-for-nature swap, supported by Standard Chartered and private sector partners. This marks a significant step toward addressing climate change and biodiversity loss in the region.

By leveraging a $300 million lower-cost loan from Standard Chartered, The Bahamas repurchased $215.7 million in Eurobonds and an $81 million commercial bank loan. The resulting savings from reduced interest and principal payments will now fund ambitious ocean conservation initiatives.

Debt-for-nature swaps are gaining traction as a critical tool for achieving conservation and climate goals, addressing a portion of the $942 billion global funding gap BloombergNEF estimates is needed to restore and maintain biodiversity. The Bahamas’ initiative highlights how these mechanisms can channel resources to countries in the Global South to protect natural ecosystems.

Slav Gatchev, head of sustainable debt at The Nature Conservancy, which designed the deal and provides conservation expertise to The Bahamas, emphasized the importance of such agreements. “The nature bonds program is one of the few mechanisms that can drive financing at scale towards climate and nature in the global south,” he said.

A Global First in Debt Swaps

The Bahamas’ deal represents a new generation of debt-for-nature swaps. It is the first to involve guarantees and insurance from private sector players, including a $70 million credit guarantee from impact investor Builders Vision and $30 million in insurance from AXA XL. These enhancements, combined with a $200 million partial credit guarantee from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), allowed Standard Chartered to issue a 15-year loan with a favorable 4.7% interest rate, comparable to new IDB debt costs.

“The asset class is not only scaling but developing,” said Dennis Eisele, head of global credit market financing for Latin America at Standard Chartered. “Builders Vision and AXA demonstrate there is an expanded pool of capital for these deals.”

Protecting Vulnerable Ecosystems

As an archipelago of low-lying islands, coral islets, and cays, The Bahamas is particularly vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events. The devastating impact of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 continues to affect the country, highlighting the urgency of climate resilience measures.

This deal comes at a critical time. At the UN biodiversity summit in Colombia in October, nations failed to finalize a strategy for mobilizing billions of dollars in conservation funding. Wealthier nations have been hesitant to increase direct financial contributions, instead urging private sector involvement to bridge the funding gap.

The Bahamas’ innovative approach demonstrates how debt restructuring can serve as a lifeline for climate and conservation efforts in vulnerable nations. It also sets a precedent for similar initiatives globally, aligning financial mechanisms with environmental sustainability.

Navigating the Taiwan-China Divide: A Caribbean Perspective on Diplomatic Balancing

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By Dr. Isaac Newton

News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Mon. Nov. 25, 2024: The Caribbean’s diplomatic landscape is shaped by competing alliances with Taiwan and China, reflecting broader global geopolitical dynamics. As Caribbean leaders balance these alliances, the stakes for development, economic growth, and political autonomy are high. Navigating this divide requires careful strategy, with an eye on shifting power structures that could have profound implications for the region’s sovereignty and future growth.

FLASHBACK – Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te (L) escorts Prime Minister of Saint Kitts and Nevis Terrance Drew during a ceremonial welcome at the Presidential Office in Taipei on June 24, 2024.(Photo by SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)

The Taiwan vs. China Alignment: Benefits and Drawbacks

Caribbean nations aligned with Taiwan benefit from targeted financial aid, scholarships, and infrastructural support, particularly in healthcare, education, and agriculture. Taiwan’s “checkbook diplomacy” has helped fill development gaps, but its limited international influence often means these benefits don’t translate into substantial geopolitical leverage. Conversely, Caribbean nations with ties to China gain access to significant investments, infrastructure projects, and trade opportunities, notably through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, these partnerships come with the risks of mounting debt, economic dependence, and a political obligation to adhere to China’s One-China policy, which may diminish regional autonomy.

The Developmental Stakes

The diplomatic split poses significant developmental challenges. For smaller island economies, Taiwan’s focused aid offers manageable growth, while China’s large-scale investments can dramatically reshape economies but with potential long-term fiscal dependence. The divide also threatens the Caribbean’s collective voice, weakening regional cooperation through CARICOM, which could undermine the region’s ability to leverage its unified influence in global forums.

Leveraging Dual Partnerships for Mutual Benefit

Despite the divide, Caribbean nations can reframe this situation as an opportunity for dual partnerships. By encouraging both Taiwan and China to compete constructively for influence, countries can secure agreements that prioritize sustainable, region-focused development over geopolitical allegiance. Transparent agreements with both powers could help mitigate dependency risks while maximizing the benefits each offers.

A Shift in Political Sentiments

Electoral shifts in Taiwan over the next two cycles are likely to tilt the island towards pro-China policies, marking a significant turning point in its international relationships. This change is partly driven by pragmatic concerns: Taiwan’s increasing diplomatic isolation and the growing economic and political clout of China present a complex reality for Taiwan’s future. For the Caribbean, this realignment could necessitate a pivot in diplomatic strategies. Countries currently aligned with Taiwan might find it increasingly difficult to maintain exclusive ties, as Taiwan’s resources and global advocacy shift toward prioritizing relations with China. Rather than seeing this as a loss, Caribbean leaders should view the realignment as an opportunity to adapt, balancing continued engagement with Taiwan while forging new, strategically sound ties with China.

Embracing the One-China Policy?

As China’s global influence strengthens, Caribbean leaders face mounting pressure to embrace the One-China policy, particularly as the United States has formalized its support. Given the Caribbean’s limited diplomatic leverage and resources, maintaining a neutral stance may no longer be viable. A collective, regional approach focusing on development priorities could help Caribbean nations navigate these competing pressures while preserving their sovereignty and international standing. Strategic engagement with both Taiwan and China, focusing on national and regional interests, will be key.

The Path Forward

To manage these complexities, Caribbean leaders should adopt a pragmatic approach:
1. Diversifying Partnerships: Engage with both Taiwan and China while ensuring fair terms that align with national development goals.
2. Strengthening Regional Unity: Use CARICOM to craft a unified policy that enhances the Caribbean’s collective diplomatic voice.
3. Managing Risks: Ensure transparency and sustainability in foreign investments to avoid debt traps and preserve fiscal sovereignty.
4. Adapting to Global Trends: Stay attuned to shifts in international power dynamics and adjust policies accordingly.
5. Building Resilience Through Innovation: Invest in local innovation, entrepreneurship, and sustainable industries that reduce reliance on external powers. By fostering homegrown solutions, the Caribbean can increase its resilience to global shifts and preserve its economic sovereignty.

The Taiwan-China divide presents both challenges and opportunities for the Caribbean. By leveraging dual partnerships wisely, fostering regional cooperation, and preparing for shifts in global power dynamics, the region can navigate these complexities and secure sustainable development while maintaining political autonomy.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Dr. Isaac Newton is a globally recognized governance expert, foreign policy strategist, and leadership consultant with over 30 years of experience advising governments, international organizations, and corporate entities. Harvard, Princeton, and Columbia-trained, Dr. Newton specializes in crafting innovative solutions to complex geopolitical challenges, with a focus on leveraging diplomatic partnerships for sustainable development. His insightful analysis and strategic guidance have positioned him as a leading voice on Caribbean regional affairs and global power dynamics.

Petronas Steps Up as Exxon Exits Key Guyana Oil Block

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News Americas, New York, NY, November 22, 2024: Malaysian energy giant Petronas is emerging as a key player in Guyana’s energy landscape, taking center stage in a shallow-water oil block there after the Exxon Mobil-led consortium ended talks with the Guyanese government.

Exxon Mobil, along with Hess Corporation and China’s Cnooc, had secured the offshore Block S8 in a 2022 bidding round. However, negotiations faltered this year as Exxon reportedly sought to use the area for carbon capture and storage. “We don’t want to do that at this stage,” said Guyana Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo.

This shift mirrors a similar development in neighboring Suriname earlier this week, where Exxon pulled out of an offshore oil block, leaving Petronas as the sole operator of what is considered one of the country’s most promising energy projects.

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As Exxon refocuses its regional strategy, Petronas stands poised to strengthen its position in the energy sector across Guyana and Suriname.

Petroliam Nasional Berhad, known as PETRONAS, is Malaysia’s state-owned multinational oil and gas company headquartered in Kuala Lumpur. Founded in 1974, the company oversees all of Malaysia’s oil and gas resources and operates in over 100 countries, contributing significantly to the nation’s economy.

Ranked 216th on the 2022 Fortune Global 500 list and identified by the Financial Times as one of the “new seven sisters” of influential state-owned oil companies, PETRONAS engages in a wide range of activities. These include upstream exploration, downstream refining, gas processing, LNG marketing, petrochemical production, shipping, and even property investments. From 2015 to 2020, it provided over 15% of Malaysia’s government revenue, underscoring its critical role in the country’s development.

Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange Lowers Investment Threshold

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News Americas, New York, NY, November 14, 2024: The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) Monetary Council has introduced a series of new measures aimed at boosting individual and small-business participation on the Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange (ECSE). The council has notably lowered the minimum financial threshold for investment, reducing the barrier from EC$5,000 to EC$500 to facilitate wider engagement with the regional stock exchange.

ECCB Governor Timothy Antoine

These changes are part of the ECCB’s strategic initiative to democratize access to investment opportunities within the eight member territories, which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The ECSE, launched in 2001 as a fully electronic exchange, was established to provide a platform for regional investment, but individual investors have historically been underrepresented. Currently, approximately 98% of investors are institutional entities, leaving individual participation at a marginal 2%.

To address this gap, the ECCB’s Monetary Council, which includes finance ministers from each member territory, not only lowered the entry threshold but also recommended that a portion of future bonds and treasury bills be earmarked exclusively for small investors. This safeguard is intended to prevent institutional investors from monopolizing these financial instruments, providing individual investors with fairer access.

ECCB Governor Timothy Antoine emphasized the importance of public participation in the securities market, likening the opportunity to wealth-building practices common in larger markets, such as the U.S., where Caribbean diasporic families routinely invest. Antoine explained that the ECCB itself maintains substantial holdings in U.S. markets, as the U.S. dollar is essential to member economies given its status as the currency for the majority of their external debt and import transactions.

In tandem with the ECCB’s efforts, Finance Minister Dennis Cornwall highlighted the need to foster a culture of financial literacy and access to capital within the region. He outlined three key focus areas for regional credit unions: promoting financial education from a young age, expanding access to capital—particularly in underserved communities—and encouraging collaboration across sectors. These initiatives aim to equip citizens with the skills and resources to build sustainable wealth and support regional economic growth.

The announcement came at a recent conference, held under the theme “Financial Empowerment through Wealth Creation: Investment Opportunities in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).”

Caribbean Firms Face Structural Barriers To Growth Research Finds

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News Americas, New York, NY, Tues. Nov. 12, 2024: Caribbean businesses encounter significant operational and financial challenges, with informal payments, power outages, and limited access to capital markets among the top hurdles, according to a new report by the Inter-American Development Bank, (IDB) and Compete Caribbean titled “Are We There Yet? The Path toward Sustainable Private Sector Development in the Caribbean.”

The report, which covers 13 Caribbean nations, finds that regulatory bottlenecks often lead firms to rely on informal payments to expedite approvals, such as import licenses or construction permits. Meanwhile, two-thirds of firms face frequent power or Internet disruptions, emphasizing the need for stronger public service infrastructure to support business continuity.

A critical challenge highlighted is the lack of access to finance, which severely limits firm productivity. The study notes that Caribbean capital markets are underdeveloped and often illiquid, forcing companies to rely on limited and high-cost credit markets. Further complicating this issue is the lack of robust credit history data, which stifles lending options.

The report also identifies limitations in the region’s support for innovation and entrepreneurship. Although many Caribbean countries see significant potential in fostering entrepreneurship, systematic support for startups is scarce, and existing programs are often small in scale or temporary. This inhibits the development of scalable enterprises and limits the growth of a robust private sector.

Workforce Mismatch and Brain Drain

The Caribbean also faces a notable mismatch in labor market needs, with an oversupply of unskilled workers and a shortage of skilled professionals, particularly in technology sectors. Emigration of highly skilled workers to opportunities abroad exacerbates this imbalance, leaving critical skill gaps in key industries, the study said.

Need for Policy Reforms and Modernized Services

To address these issues, the report suggests reforms to improve business processes and public services. Key recommendations include streamlining licensing procedures, automating services through digital platforms, and implementing transparency campaigns to reduce corruption.

For workforce development, the study advises creating closer collaboration between employers and educational institutions to align training programs with in-demand skills, especially in information and communication technology (ICT). It also recommends government-supported job placement services and vocational training programs to enhance employment opportunities.

Support for Innovation and Financial Inclusion

On the financial front, the IDB study calls for policies that foster competition in credit markets and expand financial inclusion. These include establishing credit registries and bureaus for sharing credit histories, strengthening property rights and insolvency processes, and advancing financial technologies with adequate safeguards to improve credit risk assessment.

The report further encourages governments to design innovation support programs that span the business lifecycle, including public and private incubators and accelerators. Greater collaboration between industry and academic institutions is also recommended to support technology transfer and development.

A Roadmap for Growth

“The launch of this publication comes at a pivotal moment for our region. It underscores the crucial role of the private sector in driving national growth and development. By identifying key challenges and offering regional solutions and policy recommendations, it aligns with IDB Strategy+ and the pillars of our One Caribbean regional program,” said Anton Edmunds, IDB General Manager for the Caribbean Country Department. “This is not just a book; it’s a roadmap filled with regional messages and country-specific insights to promote more sustainable economic development within the Caribbean.”

The report uses data from the Innovation, Firm Performance, and Gender Issues in the Caribbean (IFPG) Firm-Level Survey, sponsored by Compete Caribbean in 2020, offering a comprehensive look into the hurdles Caribbean firms face and potential policy-driven solutions.

As the region seeks to reinvigorate economic growth post-COVID-19, the IDB report underscores the need for a stronger private sector and improved business environment. Between 1960 and 2019, the Caribbean region experienced an annual growth rate of just 1.47%, lagging behind the 1.94% rate in Latin America and well below the global average for middle-income countries.

The report’s recommendations offer a roadmap for fostering a more dynamic and resilient private sector, which is vital for accelerating the Caribbean’s long-term economic growth and development.

This Caribbean PM Calls On Sandals Resorts To Pay Outstanding Taxes

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News Americas, ST. JOHN’S, Antigua, Nov. 4, 2024: A Caribbean prime minister has publicly urged Sandals Resorts International (SRI), to address outstanding tax obligations on its Antigua property, Sandals Grande Antigua.

Antigua & Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne expressed frustration over what he described as the luxury resort’s unwillingness to fulfill its tax responsibilities, noting that Sandals owes around EC$30 million, primarily from the Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax, (ABST).

During his radio show over the weekend, Browne expressed disappointment, saying that despite Sandals collecting the ABST on behalf of the government, a significant portion of the funds has yet to be remitted. He voiced concerns about what he sees as a pattern with Sandals across the Caribbean, suggesting that the resort chain’s approach has been to prioritize profits at the expense of local economies.

“I don’t understand why these ‘so-called’ investors feel that they’re the only stakeholders who should benefit. They aim to extract every bit of revenue but resist government taxation,” Browne said. He warned that a similar tax dispute occurred with Sandals in the Bahamas, resulting in payments from the hotel group.

Addressing Sandals’ Executive Chairman Adam Stewart directly, Browne asserted that the company should be invested in more than just profits, stressing the importance of fair wages for staff and the fulfillment of tax obligations to support the local economy. He stated, “Sandals is not the only stakeholder; governments and workers deserve their fair share, not just Sandals’ shareholders.”

The Prime Minister went on to critique what he referred to as Sandals’ “colonialist model” of operation, arguing that it reflects exploitative practices that undermine the socioeconomic development of the Caribbean. Browne added, “As a beloved Caribbean brand, Sandals should take pride in meaningfully contributing to the well-being of the communities where it operates.”

Browne expressed that Sandals’ practices are not only an issue for Antigua but are felt throughout the Caribbean, where similar policies are in place. SRI has yet to respond to Prime Minister Browne’s remarks and the allegations of non-cooperation with Antigua’s Inland Revenue Department.

Top Caribbean Beach Destinations For Wealthy Entrepreneurs In 2024

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News Americas, New York, NY, October 28, 2024: Nomad Capitalist has unveiled its 2024 Nomad Beach Index (NBI), spotlighting the Caribbean’s top beach destinations for high-net-worth entrepreneurs and investors seeking favorable living and financial environments.

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Leading the list is the Cayman Islands, known for its advantageous tax laws and high-quality services, followed by Antigua and Barbuda and St. Kitts and Nevis.

The NBI, based on data from more than 30 unique sources, ranks beach destinations using a 10-50 scale across five factors: Beauty (30%), Services (20%), Taxes (20%), Immigration (20%), and Safety (10%). The Cayman Islands secured the top spot for its renowned tax efficiency and appeal among affluent individuals preferring simplified tax regulations. Antigua and Barbuda advanced in the rankings due to enhanced service offerings, including improved airport operations and mobile connectivity.

Other Caribbean nations highlighted in the top 10 include Dominica (tied for fourth) and the Bahamas, which both continue to attract global entrepreneurs with streamlined immigration pathways and business-friendly environments. The Dominican Republic also made the list, reflecting its ongoing appeal as a destination with both lifestyle and financial benefits.

Javier Correa, strategy associate at Nomad Capitalist, emphasized that the NBI targets high-net-worth individuals looking for long-term, tax-efficient beach destinations. “The Caribbean’s beautiful beaches offer more than scenic getaways,” Correa noted. “They represent viable options for globally mobile entrepreneurs and investors seeking financial growth, streamlined immigration, and robust banking options.”