80% chance of Tropical Depression forming this week Loop Cayman Islands

Black Immigrant Daily News

The National Hurricane Center reported on August 29, 2022 that a bad weather system near the Leeward Islands now has an 80 per cent chance of formation into a tropical depression in the next five days.

The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Central Tropical Atlantic and is forecasted to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.

“Spaghetti” models forecasting movement of disturbance (Source: The Weather Channel)

Other disturbances

Bermuda

In addition to the Leeward Islands disturbance, a small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce limited shower activity.

Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely dissipate by the end of the week.

The chance of formation through the next five days is low, at 10 per cent.

African coast

If things couldn’t get more complicated for us, the National Hurricane Center said that a tropical wave is also forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday evening or early Tuesday.

Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

The chance of formation chance through five days is low, at 30 per cent.

System coming off coast of Africa (Image source: The Weather Channel)

Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Lastly, there is a trough of low pressure that could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.

Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

The chance of formation through the next five days is low, at 20 per cent.

Preparation is key

If you are in the Leeward Islands or anywhere else in the Caribbean, you should continue to monitor these developments, in particular, the one near the Leeward Islands which has a high chance of formation into a tropical depression this week (and which may be the next named storm of the season, Danielle).

You should also start making preparations now or double-checking that you have the necessary storm preparedness items and plans in place (rather than waiting until the last minute).

Being storm-ready and having community emergency response teams (ordinary members of the community trained by emergency professionals to help each community during storms) are also critical.

More importantly, regardless of computer models which predict storm directions, the direction of any storm could change at any moment. You must therefore stay vigilant, regardless of the storm forecast model you are following.

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